Pulling ESPN scoreboards & fitting ratings…
How the model works
- Every completed FBS game this season is pulled from ESPN with its closing line; ratings are solved iteratively, adjusted for opponent strength, with recent weeks weighted more.
- Spreads average two ratings: points scored/allowed (blowouts dampened past 21) and a margin rating (dampened past 14). Spread picks need a 5+ pt gap from the line (A ≥ 7, B ≥ 6, C ≥ 5) and both teams to have played 3+ games.
- Totals average a points-scored rating with each team's history of going over/under its posted totals. Over/Under is flagged at 3+ points of edge once both teams have 3+ games.
- Winners lean 70% on the betting line and 30% on the model — the line is the sharpest win signal. Home field is 2.6 points; win chance uses a 14-point normal curve.
For entertainment only. Lines shown come from ESPN's feed (DraftKings/ESPN BET).